張廣瑞
My judge about the situation on the economy is different from the mainstream. I deem 2009 should be an upsurge in outbound travel. Why? Outbound tourism consumption is the best time in China while the price and the market are relatively good. Over the past years foreign markets are afraid of the Chinese, but now the Chinese are welcomed by them. I can not quite understand some of the current arguments which are in favor of the "Let the Americans buy American goods”.
It is true that inbound travel market is very low currently which does not mean there is no chance. As a grand country like China we should not give up the inbound tourism promotion at all times.
In a long term, the profits of domestic tourism transfers between regions while the total of the wealth is not increased. Government should therefore support our travel agent to do publicity. The reason of the development of Dubai is that the government has given the advanced construction of basic facilities. To develop the high-end tourism, the Government must go simultaneously.
《世界酒店》：從數(shù)量上來(lái)說(shuō)，國(guó)民的錢包應(yīng)該慢慢在鼓起來(lái)，但是卻越來(lái)越拮據(jù)了，進(jìn)行旅游消費(fèi)的比重下降了。為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種情況？
張廣瑞：這次危機(jī)對(duì)企業(yè)的影響比較大，對(duì)大部分中國(guó)老百姓來(lái)講，目前還是比較幸運(yùn)的。因?yàn)榇钨J危機(jī)最直接影響的是美國(guó)，而美國(guó)把這種影響轉(zhuǎn)到了世界各地。我春節(jié)時(shí)期還在美國(guó)，就感覺(jué)洛杉磯商店的生意遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不如前幾年，美國(guó)人確實(shí)感覺(jué)到是在過(guò)緊日子了，中國(guó)目前還沒(méi)有到這個(gè)程度。
但是另外一個(gè)問(wèn)題是，一旦心理有了某個(gè)預(yù)期，國(guó)民消費(fèi)就有所控制。這也與旅游本身的性質(zhì)有關(guān)，旅游畢竟不是必要的消費(fèi)。現(xiàn)在談得比較多的是政府救市，從廣東開(kāi)始，隨及各個(gè)省市開(kāi)始學(xué)，這樣的刺激方式，效果是否大？作為一種宣傳，效果還不錯(cuò)。但從長(zhǎng)期考慮，只有消費(fèi)者確實(shí)感覺(jué)這種刺激對(duì)他有益，才會(huì)有消費(fèi)行為，否則很難有直接的明顯效果。
《世界酒店》：目前，有很多呼聲支持國(guó)內(nèi)旅游消費(fèi)，也有支持出境和入境旅游消費(fèi)的，您對(duì)當(dāng)前旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)的判斷持什么觀點(diǎn)？
張廣瑞：我對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的判斷和目前的主流判斷有點(diǎn)區(qū)別。我認(rèn)為2009年應(yīng)當(dāng)是出境旅游的一個(gè)高潮。為什么呢？目前正好是中國(guó)人出境旅游消費(fèi)最好的時(shí)候，由于外國(guó)需要中國(guó)這樣的市場(chǎng)，所以無(wú)論是在價(jià)格上、市場(chǎng)上，都相對(duì)較好。過(guò)去很多國(guó)家怕中國(guó)人去了之后不走，現(xiàn)在是歡迎中國(guó)人去消費(fèi)。我不是很贊成都要學(xué)“讓美國(guó)人買美國(guó)人的東西”的做法.作為消費(fèi)者,考慮的就是“這個(gè)東西現(xiàn)在便宜，現(xiàn)在值”,就應(yīng)當(dāng)現(xiàn)在消費(fèi)。